Methodology

How every market settles

Ledger prints the settling rule on the card before you call, and again on the ticket after. This page is the whole set, one rule per market shape, and it is not a second copy of them. Every rule below is generated by the same function the product calls, so this page cannot describe a rule the app is not applying.

Generated from the product on each build

The short version

A real result decides every call that a public source can grade. Ledger waits for that result and never invents one. A market with no public source says so on its face before you pick a side. A tie returns the Float. A result that never becomes verifiable voids to a push, which is Ledger admitting it cannot check something rather than charging that to you.

Every rule, as the product states it

The left column is the shape of the market. The rule and the source are the exact strings the board card shows you before the call and the ticket repeats afterwards. The names and numbers in them are examples; the wording is not.

Moneyline

Which side wins the game.

Real source

Whichever side wins. Overtime counts. A tie with no overtime returns the Float to both sides.

Graded from the official NFL result once the game is final. Ledger waits for the real number and never fakes one.

Spread

One side carries a handicap.

Real source

The line is -3.5 on Chiefs. That side is correct when Chiefs' final score plus the line still beats Bills. Overtime counts. An exact push returns the Float.

Graded from the official NFL result once the game is final. Ledger waits for the real number and never fakes one.

Total

Both scores added together.

Real source

Both sides' final scores are added together and compared to 224.5. Overtime counts. Landing exactly on the number returns the Float.

Graded from the official NBA result once the game is final. Ledger waits for the real number and never fakes one.

A slice of the game

The Short Game: a named window, not the whole match.

Real source

Scored on the first five innings alone. Whatever happens after it does not count, however the game ends.

Graded from the official MLB result once the game is final. Ledger waits for the real number and never fakes one.

Player line

One athlete's own number.

Real source

The player's official passing yards decides it: More is correct above the posted number, Less below it. Overtime counts. A player who does not appear at all returns the Float.

Graded from the final NFL box score, including any stat correction the league publishes before the ticket settles.

Head to head

Two competitors in a field, golf and racing.

Real source

Whichever of the two finishes higher on the official leaderboard. If only one of them finishes, that one is correct. If neither does, the Float comes back.

Read from the official tournament finishing order once the event is complete.

Fight

A bout inside a card.

Real source

The official decision, by any method: knockout, submission, or the cards. A draw or a no contest returns the Float to both sides.

Graded from the UFC official result after the bout. A cancelled or postponed bout returns the Float.

Crypto price

A public price at a stated moment.

Real source

Yes is correct if BTC is at or above $118,500 when the market closes on Sep 3. No is correct if it is below.

Read from the public BTC price feed at the close. One reading, taken once, with no rounding and no adjustment.

Stock close

An official closing price.

Real source

Yes is correct if NVDA closes at or above $182.40 on Sep 2. No is correct if it closes below.

Read from the official closing price after the session ends. A halted or unscheduled session pushes the call to the next close.

Championship

A trophy, decided months out.

Real source

This settles correct only when the championship is won by the named club. Reaching the final is not enough.

Settled when the championship is decided, no later than Feb 7. Until then the ticket stays open and the Float stays committed.

Culture and world

A public outcome with no scoreboard.

Real source

The question is exactly this: the exact question the market asks

Scout reads a public source on Sep 7 and grades it against that source. If no public source has answered it yet, the ticket waits rather than guessing.

No public source

A market reality does not grade.

Simulated

No public feed grades this one, so the result is drawn when the market closes rather than read off a scoreboard.

The card says Simulated result up front for exactly this reason. Standing still moves, because your calibration is your own either way.

Void, correction and dispute

Push. A genuine tie. A total landing exactly on the number, a drawn fight, a shared finishing position, a game that ends level with no overtime. The Float comes back and the call counts as neither a hit nor a miss, so it moves no rate on your record.

Void. A call still unsettled three days after its result was due is voided as a push and the Float comes back. Golf and motor racing get a week, because their events run across several days. A void is never scored as a loss. A feed that drops a fixture or stops answering is Ledger's problem, not yours.

Correction. Player lines grade from the final box score including any stat correction the league publishes before the ticket settles. Once a ticket has settled, its grade stands, and the settle moment is stamped on it so you can check what was known when.

Dispute. There is no editorial desk adjudicating grades. If you believe a call graded wrong, write to support and we will check that grade against this page. If the page and the grade disagree, the page is the contract.

What decides, by source

Sports grade against real finals, linescores and box scores from ESPN data. Crypto markets read a public price feed at the close. Stock markets read the official closing price after the session. Championship markets wait for the trophy. Culture and world markets go through an automated, source-gated check of the public record that runs only after the resolve date and returns nothing rather than guessing.

A market with no public source is labelled Simulated result on its own card, before you pick a side, and it is drawn at settle rather than read off a scoreboard. Standing still moves on it, because your calibration is your own either way.

Why this page is generated

A methodology page written by hand is a second copy of the rules, and a second copy drifts. Someone tightens the wording on a card, nobody remembers this page, and a year later the site documents a rule the product stopped applying. Every rule above is produced by calling the product's own settlement function on a representative market. There is no prose copy of a rule on this page and no way to change one without changing the other.

The longer explanation of the grading pipeline, including how the culture check is gated and what happens when a feed goes quiet, is in How Ledger settles predictions.